When Is The Next Recession Coming?
Pundits and forecasters have an awful record of predicting exactly when and how bad recessions will be. But it is possible to know when the risk of recession is much higher than normal. Here's how to tell and what to do about it.
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This is part three of a four part series on the most important real estate cycles:
Part 1: The long commercial real estate financial cycle that drives prices.
Part 2: The shorter physical cycle that drives rental income via vacancies and rent prices.
Part 4: Where are we in the local real estate cycle?
Why care about recessions?
A recession is one of the most dangerous things that can happen to your real estate portfolio. First, a recession is the last phase of the physical cycle, which drives down your rental income. And if the investment is funded with debt (as most are) there's a risk it won't be able to make the payments. If this happens you can go bust and lose everything.
A mere physical cycle recession is actually often pretty mild. The double